NOVEMBER 9, 2010 BY GEORGE LOVATO JR
The Return of the Salad Days
Let’s talk about the return of the salad days of the economy. I have heard scores of people say it is just around the corner. I have heard other say 2011 is the big year. Yet the realists say it is some time off. I am going out on a limb here. I say 2013 is the year we will actually start to feel the effects of the economy on our wallets and bank accounts. The market as a whole is overpriced. Interest on deposits are underpriced. With the recent flood of Fed Money into the bond market there soon should begin a measurable shift in the behavior of the cost and return on real money. But all this as it will affect us will take some time.
The Unusual and the Unexpected
The international pundits say we are self-serving. Yet they remain big investors in the United States of America. As long as we are healthy their investments should remain healthy. So quiet down China, Russia and Brazil. We are in the midst of reforming the structural elements of our economy. We are rebuilding the foundation for sustained economic growth. In a time where all the rules have changed we need to do the unusual and the unexpected. Pouring 600 billion dollars into the bond market is a smart move. Ben Bernanke is the smartest guy in the room. He knows what he is doing. He is the most forward thinking Chairman we have ever seen. Let him pull the levers and push the buttons that need attention. Make the moves that long term have the best effect on getting the economy back on tempo.
My Bet is 2013
The best thing for us all to do now is to be patient. Be watchful. Be mindful and be inventive. By all of us playing by the same rules we will see gradual but sustained growth. After all that is what we all want and all need. The return to the salad days will take some time but it will come. My bet is 2013.
BH Capital's Founder & CEO George Lovato's insights, opinions and analysis of current events in global finance.
Showing posts with label ECONOMY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ECONOMY. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Monday, August 30, 2010
Mr President – Your Government Should Leave Well Enough Alone!
AUGUST 30, 2010 BY GEORGE LOVATO JR
The Guiding Minds of Corporate America Have Done a Solid Job
Recently we have seen much comment on the fact cash harbored in corporate America is at an all time high. We have also heard how the government is pushing big banking to lend to small business again. In both cases there is a lesson in the news. First cash being at an all time high is in fact a good sign. This in simple terms means that at the appropriate time corporate America will reinvest in itself. The mood, tempo and general indicators of the economy will be right and the capital to exploit the economic condition of the nation will be present. This is a sign of recovery. Corporate America has done a pretty good job of judging the right time in a number of areas. Have there been mistakes and false starts in the past? Certainly. But by and large the guiding minds of corporate America have done a solid job.
The Government Has Made More Mistakes Than American Enterprise
Let’s speak for a minute on the governments comments. First they have played banker in the recent past. They have made what I consider some very controversial decisions in that regard. They helped the weak to survive and intervened in a manner not fitting American enterprises number one rule – survival of the fittest. Now after we have stopped the bleeding of the biggest economic banking hemorrhage in human history, the government wants to tell banks what to do. The government has made more mistakes than American enterprise. They have attempted to change the basic rules of business governance. Now before the timing and condition of the economy is ripe for regenerating the lending cycle again, the government wants to push where pushing is contradictive to its warnings to Wall Street and the financial community at large.
Dear Mr. President, leave well enough alone. Business and the financial community will be its own best judge as to when, where and how it will begin to fuel the rest of the economic recovery
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